This year will be defined by two reality checks. Live music moves from outrage to remedy. Social video in the United States moves from legal limbo to forced structure. Both moments reset power for artists, creators, and platforms.

The Department of Justice did not file to negotiate. It filed to dismantle what it calls an illegal monopoly and asked a court to order structural relief that includes divesting Ticketmaster. A recent schedule has the government’s antitrust case heading to trial, while separate suits over resale practices keep pressure high. With Ticketmaster controlling a dominant share of major venue ticketing and the Taylor Swift fallout still in public memory, the clean remedy is a breakup that restores competition and rebuilds trust. 

More venues will test rival ticketing. All-in pricing and lower junk fees become table stakes. Artists add leverage on tour routing and presales. Expect a scramble for talent friendly deals from SeatGeek, Posh, Eventbrite, and new white label tools as incumbent share loosens.

The legal path is now clear. The Supreme Court upheld the federal law that requires ByteDance to divest or effectively shutter U.S. operations, pushing TikTok toward a U.S. controlled structure. Many U.S. users do not want to spend time on a platform they feel is censored by the government, which will intensify churn during the handoff. U.S. users have already shown they are willing to migrate, with mass signups for the China based social app RedNote in protest of a potential TikTok shutdown.  Even with private U.S. investors at the core rather than direct government ownership, creators will perceive a different product inside U.S. borders. Some will drift to YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels as recommendation quirks change, features lag during the transition, and moderation rules feel unfamiliar. Baseline usage is enormous, which makes any percentage decline visible in culture and in brand plans.

Creators hedge across three short video rails. Music teams stop treating TikTok as the only front door for discovery and rebuild muscle on YouTube and Instagram. Advertisers demand clearer provenance and safer controls across every platform. U.S. TikTok may stabilize at a lower ceiling while the global app remains large outside U.S. borders.

Regulators have already said the quiet part out loud on live events by asking a court to break up Live Nation and Ticketmaster. The U.S. version of TikTok has already been sold to U.S. investors. The remaining variable is execution speed, not intent. 2026 is when both stories hit consumers in ways that change purchasing and posting, not just headlines.

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